CAM Releases the Building Michigan Podcast, Episode 22

Economic Forecast Preview: 2026 and Beyond, with Fan-Yu Kuo

Bloomfield Hills, MI (January 19, 2026) - In Season 5, Episode 1 of the Building Michigan podcast, we delve into predictions about the 2026 U.S. economy and the outlook for commercial and residential construction. This episode is a precursor to the Economic Forecast Breakfast being hosted at 7:30am on February 3, 2026, at the Great Lakes Design & Construction EXPO.

Hosted by CAM president Kevin Koehler, this episode features Fan-Yu Kuo, a senior economist at the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). Fan-Yu has a master’s in international economics and finance from Johns Hopkins University and a master’s in international political economy from King’s College London. She conducts economic research on macroeconomics and forecasting, and she assists in economic and housing updates.

2026: A Transitional Year

Fan-Yu emphasized that 2026 will be a transitional year, with the economy slowing but remaining resilient, the labor market stabilizing, inflation cooling down, and monetary policy easing. She noted that, despite weak job growth in 2025, productivity growth is up, which is positive for the economy and helps control inflation. Though they likely won’t make any moves in January, it is expected that the Federal Reserve will keep lowering interest rates in 2026, which will create a better environment for businesses, consumers, and home buyers.

Housing Market Resilience and Challenges

Fan-Yu discussed the current state of the housing market. Multifamily construction faced a significant drop in 2024 due to oversupply but is now recovering as high home prices and mortgage rates keep potential buyers in the rental market. Single-family construction faces headwinds including regulatory challenges and labor shortages, leading to the lowest level since late 2020. Fan-Yu estimates that tariffs are adding over $10,000 to the cost of a single-family home. Remodeling remains a bright spot, driven by factors such as aging housing stock, high mortgage rates, and strong homeowner equity. Additionally, remote work means higher demand for home office space, further supporting remodeling.

Labor Shortage and the Demand for Skilled Trades

“The construction labor shortage is a long-term structural issue,” says Fan-Yu. Firstly, the median age of construction workers currently sits at 42 years old. Further, approximately 25% of construction workers are immigrants, meaning that increased immigration reform has contributed to the shortage of laborers. Fan-Yu emphasized the importance of bringing in young skilled workers to supplement the labor supply, increase efficiency, and contribute to lowering home prices.

“I really encourage everyone to come to the Great Lakes Design & Construction EXPO. We'll dive deeper into these topics. We'll look at the local market conditions, and we’ll have more time for questions. So, it's a great opportunity to network and stay informed.” – Fan-Yu Kuo

Tickets for the February 3rd Economic Forecast Breakfast are $80 and are available at miconstructionexpo.com or by calling CAM at 248-972-1000. Fan-Yu will address GDP growth, inflation, and the construction outlook, followed by Q&A.  Registration includes breakfast, the presentation, and post-meeting presenter meet-and-greet on the EXPO show floor.

Podcast Information